Rising seas and sinking land could eventually push Gulf waters inland, report warns
NEW ORLEANS - It’s inevitable that New Orleans and much of coastal Louisiana will eventually be taken over by the Gulf, according to Researchers say the question is not whether the coastline will keep moving inland, but how the state plans for it.
“Ultimately, the main message of the study is New Orleans is not forever and we have to plan for our future and we have to start planning now,” said, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, argues Louisiana’s land loss, shoreline retreat and coastal population shifts could make the state a leader in climate adaptation planning. One of the study’s key findings goes back about 125,000 years, when researchers say the Gulf reached an ancient shoreline north of Lake Pontchartrain, roughly 30 miles north of New Orleans.
Tulane said global temperatures at that time were about 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels, and sea levels were 10 to 20 feet higher than today. Tornqvist said that because of the increasing rate of sea level rise, combined with subsidence or the rate of sinking land, the Gulf will one day reach that ridge again, putting much of Southeast Louisiana underwater.
“Whatever just north of that shoreline could become the new coastal real estate, if you will,” Törnqvist said. “They are sitting right on the future shoreline. Everything south of it is going to be ocean. ”” series.
Last year, a charter boat captain showed Snell what used to be East Timbalier Island near Port Fourchon. It is now open water because of subsidence. Törnqvist said there is no exact timeline for when the Gulf could swallow much of the south shore, but sea-level rise is happening along coastal Louisiana faster than anywhere else in the world.
“Because this land is subsiding relatively fast here, we are looking at maybe three times the global average in terms of rate of sea level rise,” Törnqvist said. The study says nearly all of Louisiana’s coastal zone has lost residents since 2000, especially after major hurricanes. Researchers said that trend suggests climate-driven depopulation has already started and could accelerate as sea-level rise increases the impact of future storm surge.
Törnqvist said scrapping coastal restoration efforts, including the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion Project, only worsens the challenge. But he said that does not mean people should leave New Orleans now.
“I think there are still plenty of good reasons to stay here,” Törnqvist said. “I plan to stay here. I have no plans to leave. We’re not talking like this is going to happen in the next 10 years.
” Törnqvist said the New Orleans area will likely still be surrounded by its levee system toward the end of the century, but the landscape around it will continue changing.
“There will be less and less surrounding wetlands,” Törnqvist said. “It’s going to be more and more open Gulf. ” Researchers are urging local governments and residents not to panic, but to begin planning for long-term relocation, infrastructure changes and shifts in where people live and work.
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GULF OF AMERICA NEW ORLEANS SUBSIDENCE NEW ORLEANS SINKING TULANE UNIVERSITY NEW ORLEANS LEVEES CLIMATE CHANGE NEW ORLEANS Tulane University Study New Orleans Sea Level Rise Coastal Louisiana Land Loss Gulf Of Mexico Louisiana Climate Change Louisiana Coastline Gulf Of America Torbjörn Törnqvist Ponchatoula Ridge
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