Despite ongoing conflict and uncertainty about a potential peace deal, the U.S. is being urged to provide assistance to Ukraine, with analysts questioning the current state and future of the relationship.
is considering its options for material assistance as Russia 's war continues and the possibility of a peace deal remains remote.
"When Trump was elected, many in Kyiv were hopeful he'd bring a welcome change," John Hardie, the deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies . "Now, the Ukrainians deal with Washington because they can't afford not to. The frustration is palpable.
"the U.S. and Ukraine continue to work closely—mainly through intelligence sharing and other non-kinetic or non-material means. "I don't think necessarily Ukraine's relationship with the United States is beyond repair, but obviously it's strained presently and likely will remain stressed for some time to come," Anderson said, adding Trump"is not keen on providing Ukraine direct military support, other than intelligence.
"reached out to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry by email and the U.S. State Department by submission form last week for comment. Over the following year, Trump attempted to wrangle a peace deal for Ukraine, a feat he had said he woulda now-famous argument in the Oval Officeto meet with Trump in an attempt to reset relations and secure support to end the war that began in February 2022.and Turkey to solidify 10-year security and defense agreements, although some analysts interpreted as a potential shift in alliances.
The Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank focusing on international affairs, noted Zelensky visitedand Operation Atlantic Resolve , of which $130.1 billion was obligated and $86.7 disbursed between fiscal years 2022 and 2024. The Council on Foreign Relations , a New York-based think tank, earlier this year raised that figure to $188 billion as of December 31, 2025.the U.S. remains the most vital ally for Ukraine, with both agreeing Europe is positioned as the best alternative, although that comes with certain caveats.
"Ukraine appears to be doubling down on European states for a variety of support," Anderson said. "Clearly, at the financial level, this means support from theEurope's position as the back-up guarantor of Ukrainian security faces complication from the U.S. Trump has long criticized European North Atlantic Treaty Organization . He has variously threatened either to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance or boot other members out for not meeting their commitments.
As a result, several members of the alliance have increased their defense spending, chiefly, the NATO members closest to Russia, but that makes it difficult as the European NATO allies"face a tradeoff between Ukraine aid and their own rearmament," according to Hardie.
"Having a strong Ukraine is also a huge benefit to European security," he noted. "A Russian invasion of NATO would be far riskier if Russia has to contend with a strong Ukrainian army on its flank. " "European countries have also been investing in arms production in Ukraine and in Ukrainian-European in their countries," Hardie added. Anderson called this approach Ukraine's"European strategy," which it would prioritize"as long as the current president is in office," in reference to Trump.
"These are all factors that indicate Kiev is looking to double down on its support from European partners," Anderson said, noting the current administration appears to be in favor of European allies"pulling more of their weight," which"in this context means European countries doing more to support Ukraine. "to sustain the same levels of support for Ukraine, saying Operation Epic Fury has"consumed a lot of munitions from the United States," and, given that,"it's even less likely that the U.S. is going to consider providing arms directly to Ukraine.
" Ukraine also has the benefit of NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List initiative, through which NATO allies pay for the U.S. to supply weapons and other materiel to Ukraine, which was established to ensure a continuing supply of vital U.S. weapons to Ukraine after the Trump administration objected to the ongoing cost falling on American taxpayers, demanding the burden be more widely shared across the alliance. Ukraine has not limited itself to merely European and American allies.
Hardie cited Canada as the nation that has provided Kyiv with the most support after the U.S. and the European Union and noted some partners in the Middle East have provided various levels of support. However, a number of those options come with their own pitfalls, and the implication of a lack of commitment to Ukraine that NATO members have.
"Turkey has provided some military aid and facilitated peace talks, and then there are the deals Ukraine recently struck with Gulf countries," Hardie said. "The Saudis are sitting on a bunch of Patriot missiles that would be a godsend for Ukraine, but whether Riyadh will part with them is another question," he continued.
"At the same time, Middle Eastern countries have also provided important support to Russia through purchases of gas and oil , transshipment of dual-use goods , and serving as a hub for Russian oil traders . ", which now position it as a"drone superpower" following agreements signed with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to try and drive tighter cooperation.he met with several Mideast leaders to discuss cooperation on drones, but the assistance would only be provided if it does not weaken Ukraine's defenses and adds leverage to Kyiv's efforts to stop Russia.
"We help to defend from war those who help us, Ukraine, bring a just end to the war” with Russia, Zelensky said at the time. Ukraine has pioneered the development of cut-price drone killers that cost as little as $1,000, rewriting the air defense rule book and making other countries take notice.
The Atlantic Council argued this is"only part of the story," and the outreach to the Middle East could signal a more long-term shift in regional diplomatic alignments and security architecture. However, currently, any assistance from these nations is likely to be"very minor in nature," according to Anderson.
"What Ukraine really needs are the advanced systems that countries like Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, and Spain can provide —long range missiles, highly accurate artillery, and air defense systems," he said.
Ukraine Russia War U.S. Peace Deal Assistance Relationship Trump Zelensky Operation Atlantic Resolve Europe NATO
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