Nearly a quarter of a billion Africans will catch coronavirus during the first year of the pandemic, and up to 190,000 will die unless urgent action is taken to control the infection
A model by the World Health Organisation Africa office, published on Friday in the British Medical Journal Global Health, predicts a lower rate of exposure and viral spread than in other parts of the world, and up to 190,000 deaths.
The risk of exposure is driven by factors including household size, population density, extent of slums and road infrastructure. Many mathematical models developed to predict transmission and death rates in Africa have not adequately incorporated characteristics distinct to Africa, such as its youthful population and lower obesity rates, the researchers said.
“We tried to factor in what we are seeing on the ground, and we are seeing slower transmission rates in African countries compared to Europe and the US.”
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