Yellow fever: examining potential burden on vaccine strategy SSRN TheLancet yellowfever infection vaccine strategy vaccinestrategy publichealth
By Dr. Chinta SidharthanJun 8 2023Reviewed by Lily Ramsey, LLM In a recent study posted to the SSRN* preprint server, researchers presented a stochastic model of yellow fever transmission based on environmental covariates, which estimated the force of the infection using data on the spillover of the virus from non-human primate or sylvatic reservoirs and human-to-human transmission reproduction number.
Moreover, since the virus persists among non-human primates, the complete eradication of the disease has been impossible, and vaccines remain the major form of disease control. About the study In the present study, the researchers developed a novel stochastic transmission model that uses environmental covariates and estimates the risk of outbreaks using data on urban transmission between humans through mosquitoes that feed on humans and spillover from sylvatic reservoirs that involve mosquitoes that feed on non-human primates and humans.
A wide range of parameters was incorporated into the model, including the basic and effective reproduction numbers, the number of severe cases, the fatality rates among severe cases, reporting rates for extreme cases and fatalities, vaccine efficacy, etc. Results The results reported that based on the model estimates, the WHO’s Eliminate Yellow Fever Epidemics strategy, which aims for 50%, 60%, and 80% coverage across individuals between the ages of one and 60 years, would be effective in reducing the effective annual reproduction in all regions of Africa to below one, which would prevent large outbreaks.
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