If Senate Democrats can successfully defend all 12 seats up for election, the party needs to earn three or four currently held by Republicans to secure a majority.
Analysis shows Michigan Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat whose seat is also up for election in November, could lose his race against Republican candidate John James. The Cook Political Report notes Peters' Senate seat leans Democratic, and polling results collected by Real Clear Politics support that outlook. Most political surveys conducted since the beginning of September place Peters ahead of James by an average of 3.5 points.
If Democrats can successfully defend all 12 seats, they will need to secure three or four now occupied by Republicans in order to achieve a majority takeover. Whether the party has to win those three or four Republican seats to gain a majority also depends on the outcome of the presidential race, since a Joe Biden victory would make vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris the Senate's president, who can cast tie-breaking votes.
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