Researchers say a deadly earthquake in Japan and 2023’s most powerful solar flare occurring back-to-back can’t be a coincidence—but other experts say it probably was.
Researchers say a deadly earthquake in Japan and 2023’s most powerful solar flare occurring back-to-back can’t be a coincidence—but other experts say it probably was.Earthquakes are one of many natural phenomena that, despite technological advances, we’ve yet to predict in advance.
Researchers in Japan—a country frequently hit by devastating earthquakes—propose we look for an otherworldly source: the Sun., the researchers consider the possibility that solar activity is linked to earthquakes. When solar flares disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, they also cause slight changes in the Earth’s upper atmosphere that filter down to the electrical forces driving shifts in our planet’s crust, the scientists said. These forces are weak but potentially serve as the straw that breaks the camel’s back., the study’s senior author and an applied mathematician at Kyoto University, told Gizmodo. “Our argument is about timing, not energy. When a fault is already close to failure, even a small perturbation may shift when rupture occurs.”An infographic pointing out the range of Earth’s ionosphere. Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith The study’s model takes Earth’s crust and the ionosphere—a section of Earth’s upper atmosphere filled with charged particles—as a giant electric circuit. According toThis also means that the ionosphere tends to be heavily influenced by solar phenomena, like solar flares and geomagnetic storms, which shift the atmospheric layer’s electromagnetic profile. Earth’s crust, on the other hand, has its own share of heightened electromagnetic activity. After all, Earth’s magnetic field itself is the product of shifting hot, molten iron and nickel in Earth’s outer core. This constant motion of hot, blobby stuff underground gives Earth’s crust a permanent magnetism, according to theIn the paper, the researchers combine the electromagnetic properties of these two layers. Given the ionosphere’s susceptibility to solar activity, powerful charged particles within a solar flare could force the electrons of the ionosphere to move downward. The surge increases electron density at lower altitudes and disrupts the electrostatic balance in Earth’s crust. Once the pressure builds to a certain level, it could generate enough force to shift a fault in the crust. Normally, Earth’s crust wouldn’t be too bothered by such disturbances, but things could be different for a “critically stressed fault,” Umeno said.in Japan on January 1, 2024. Even for Japan, where earthquakes are common, these events were truly catastrophic, with at least 700 deaths and 204,903 damaged structures. Japan is among the most seismically active regions in the world,This isn’t the first time that scientists have suggested this connection—although the question is now more part of the U.S. Geological Survey’sthan it is of academic circles. Likewise, while the new paper offers a provocative mathematical analysis, other experts have some concerns about its validity., a geophysicist at the University of Maryland, described the study as “highly speculative.” Schmerr said the paper does not “present a thorough analysis or well-supported evidence that their proposed mechanism links solar flares and earthquakes.” “Instead, they present the coincidence of one solar flare and one earthquake, which is most likely just that—a coincidence,” he added.that the model was “greatly simplified” and did not account for factors such as the electrical resistance of rock layers in the crust that could nullify the effects proposed in the model.In response, Umeno acknowledged the feedback, saying the paper “does not claim final statistical proof.” However, he countered that “labeling the relationship as coincidence assumes that earthquake systems are dynamically isolated from space weather” and that “in complex systems science, cross-scale interactions are common near instabilities.” When asked about plans to further validate the model, Umeno said the team is currently planning a larger-scale analysis. And if they find “no measurable conditional effect,” then that’s it—it’ll be rejected, he said. “We are not claiming a revolution,” Umeno said. “If the data refutes it, the current framework stands. If a measurable timing modulation exists, seismic hazard models may need to expand. Either way, testing the question is scientifically valuable.”Strictly speaking, the paper proposes that a solar flare brings an already stressed fault past its tipping point, triggering an earthquake—that flares are directly linked to quakes. Then again, it could be argued that, in the bigger picture of things, a million other tiny things in Earth’s various systems could serve a similar function as solar flares in the new model. This is to say that the study gives us lots to think about. As Umeno himself says, it’ll take years of attentive statistical analysis to issue a final verdict.11:00 amLike an Avalanche: Wild Video Captures the Violent Trigger Behind Solar Flares Solar Orbiter captured the most detailed view of a solar flare, observing the build-up of events that lead to the explosion.Margherita Bassi
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