Why the next six months will be a nail-biting time for bankers

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Why the next six months will be a nail-biting time for bankers
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Bankers are waiting anxiously to see how their business and home loan books will perform when faced with the double pressure of rising unemployment and slowing economic activity.

The country’s major banks face an anxious six-month wait before they know whether their customers and their massive mortgage books can withstand the double strain of sharply rising interest rates and spluttering economic activity.

As Westpac chief executive Peter King noted last week, this delay means “the impact of rapid monetary policy tightening is yet to be fully felt”. He noted that only eight out of 11 Reserve Bank interest rate rises had flowed through into higher customer repayments. In its half-year results for the six months to December 31, 2022, Commonwealth Bank, which is the country’s largest home lender, said that $96 billion in fixed rate home loans would expire this year, followed by a further $55 billion in 2024.

According to Kevin Corbally, ANZ Group’s chief risk officer, “the question is, who are the home loan borrowers that you’re more likely to be worried about? Anyone who has taken out a loan, the rate today is higher than the rate assessed 18 months or two years ago. A big jump in the unemployment rate would inevitably result in an increase in business failures, as well as a substantial rise in the number of retail customers falling behind on their home loan repayments, their credit cards and personal loans.

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