Beyond alarms regarding China or Russia, the head of the spy agency, William J. Burns, must deal with the menace of engineered viruses and other threats.
Putin thought his window of opportunity regarding Ukraine was closing. Chinese President Xi Jinping, contemplating what he might think is an opening regarding the seizure of Taiwan, is surely watching what Burns calls Ukraine’s “breathtaking determination and resolve” — and the possible weakening of U.S. support for Ukraine.
On the CIA’s leafy Northern Virginia campus, the agency has a large cadre of analysts debating whether, for example, the world has passed “peak China” — the apogee of China’s might. Or whether there is any historical precedent for a rapid military buildup comparable to China’s that has not been followed by war. A perennial intelligence problem is to decide how a nation’s intentions can be inferred from the capabilities it develops.
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