U.S. stock portfolios could avoid further damage in the year ahead, even if the U.S. economy slips into a recession, says this strategist.
Even with another part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve flashing recession signals, U.S. stocks aren’t necessarily doomed to fall in 2023, according to James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.
However, he also put together this chart showing the S&P 500’s SPX total return as mostly positive one-year and two-years after the first month of a 10-year/3-month yield curve inversion since 1965. A departure from the trend occurred when investors weren’t skittish enough about stocks heading into a recession, particularly in 2000 when stock-market investors were caught off guard by the dotcom crash, which saw the S&P 500 post back-to-back annual declines of 14.3% and 23.6%, respectively.
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