Endorsements have historically proven pretty predictive of who wins presidential nominating contests. More from fivethirtyeight.
The endorsement leader is determined using FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 endorsement-point scale for 1972-2016 and its 2020 endorsement-point scale for 2020. The number of senators is as of the Iowa caucuses; the number of representatives is as of the election leading into the Congress during which the relevant Iowa caucuses were held; the number of governors reflects the results of the odd-year elections before the relevant Iowa caucus.
Sources: “The Party Decides,” DAVE LEIP’S ATLAS OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, U.S. Census Bureau, National Governors Association, News reports The other pre-Iowa endorsement leaders who didn’t win the nomination were weak front-runners. For example, then-Rep. Dick Gephardt earned just 7 percent of the total estimated endorsement points available in 1988. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had just 9 percent of the estimated available points in 2004. And in 2016, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had accrued just 6 percent of the endorsement points estimated to have been available then.
. As of March 6 that year, Biden had secured 22 percent of estimated available endorsement points and had an 88 percent chance of winning a pledged-delegate majority.
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