Presidents often stumble the first time they face off with their general election opponents.
A poor performance in Thursday night’s debate could be a disaster for Joe Biden. It would also be par for the course for an incumbent. Recent history is littered with presidents who put up first-debate stinkers, from Barack Obama to George W.
Bush to Ronald Reagan to the man Biden will meet on stage in Atlanta, Donald Trump. Whether it’s the day-to-day pressure of the Oval Office or just a lack of reps against an opponent who just outlasted their primary opponents, presidents often stumble the first time they face the klieg lights of a debate stage in the general election. Obama “struggled to shake off the rust in a jostling debate environment that gave his opponent Mitt Romney parity, equal time — and a new lease on political life,” POLITICO wrote after the first 2012 debate in Denver. Polling after the first 2004 debate between George W. Bush and then-Sen. John Kerry gave Kerry a two-to-one edge for their performances. But perhaps the best comparison point for Biden is Reagan, who was 73 years old when he stepped on stage for the first time in Louisville, Kentucky, with his 1984 general election opponent, former Vice President Walter Mondale. Reagan’s performance was so uneven that then-Sen. Paul Laxalt , who was serving as Republican National Committee chair, felt it necessary to assert that Reagan’s poor showing “wasn't because of any physical or mental deficiency” — instead saying Reagan’s aides “filled his head with so many facts and figures that he lost his spontaneity and his visionary concepts.” It was in their second debate in Kansas City that Reagan successfully turned the age issue around on the then-56-year-old Mondale. “I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign,” Reagan said. “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth, and inexperience.” The incumbent curse worked to Biden’s advantage four years ago, when Trump’s belligerence was widely seen as underscoring the personal traits voters didn’t like about the then-president. But that was when it was Trump who had to balance debate prep with the rigors of the job of president. This time, that’s Biden.
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