Plus, Washington politicians go about business as usual amid Iran war and DHS shutdown.
Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki takes stock of the Senate midterm landscape.
Plus, we explore how politicians in Washington are generally going about business as usual amid the Iran war and the DHS shutdown. Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here. — Adam Wollner Why Democrats still face an uphill climb to win the Senate Analysis by Steve Kornacki Despite what appears to be a favorable midterm environment, Democrats remain clear underdogs when it comes to the Senate. The reason: To capture a majority, they will need to flip at least two seats in states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need to net four seats to flip control. Their first order of business is shoring up their own incumbents. Three Democratic-held seats loom as potentially vulnerable: Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. The good news for Democrats is that they have won Senate races in all three of these states recently. They’ve also carried all three in at least one presidential election in the Trump era. There would be nothing shocking about Democrats winning all three of these races this year. When it comes to pickup opportunities, Democrats appear to have six of them. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican incumbent seeking re-election in a state Trump lost, represents the clearest target for Democrats — although she has played this role before and survived. Democrats are also bullish on North Carolina, where they believe they have a strong nominee in former Gov. Roy Cooper in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. While the Tar Heel State has been politically competitive, it has thus far remained in the GOP column in every presidential and Senate election of the Trump era. Still, a world where Democrats pick up both Maine and North Carolina is not hard to envision. But they’d still need two more. And the four other states on their pickup list are much redder than Maine and North Carolina. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking his seat again after losing by 4 points two years ago. In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is running for Senate after losing the state’s at-large House seat by 3 points in 2024. Democrats have also nominated state Rep. James Talarico in Texas, while a June primary will determine Democrats’ candidate in Iowa. The problem for Democrats is that the success they achieved in Senate elections in GOP-leaning states in the last two midterms came almost entirely from incumbents, who had established loyalties from voters that pre-dated Trump-era polarization. Specifically, Brown , Jon Tester and Joe Manchin all managed to win re-election in 2018 even though Trump had carried their states by wide margins in the previous presidential election. In that same midterm, Democrats also lost incumbents in the deep-red states of Missouri , Indiana and North Dakota . But partisan divisions nationally have only deepened in the years since. Both Tester and Brown were defeated when they sought re-election in 2024, while Manchin declined to run again and left the Democratic Party altogether. Today, the only states that Trump won in 2024 and are represented by a Democrat in the Senate are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And none of those states backed Trump by more than 5 points. Across the 2018 and 2022 Senate races that took place in states Trump won and didn’t feature a Democratic incumbent, the party won only one of them. Kyrsten Sinema edged out Republican Martha McSally in Arizona in 2018, but Trump had only barely won Arizona in 2016 and went on to lose it in 2020. In more solidly pro-Trump states, no non-incumbent Democrat won a Senate race in either 2018 or 2022. That includes races where Democrats believed they had strong candidates, including Beto O’Rourke in Texas in 2018 and Tim Ryan in Ohio in 2022. The bottom line for Democrats: They will need to make inroads in Trump-heavy states that they weren’t able to in recent midterms to win the Senate. As Americans bear costs of the Iran war and DHS shutdown, politicians leave town By Jonathan Allen, Peter Nicholas, Matt Dixon, Sahil Kapur and Katherine Doyle George W. Bush gave up golf while he was president during the Iraq War. President Donald Trump isn’t about to do the same amid the Iran war, describing his occasional golf outings as a brief reprieve from the pressures of being commander in chief. “It’s a form of relaxation,” he told NBC News in a phone interview today. “It’s a little exercise, and it takes your mind off things for a couple of hours.” A month into the war, the United States has “decimated” Iran’s military and brought to the fore a leadership that is “much more reasonable” and less “radicalized” than its predecessor, the president added. “We’re doing great,” Trump said. “And it’s coming to an end.” At the same time, Americans are being affected in all sorts of ways. The ongoing shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has left air travelers standing in long lines at airports, while motorists are paying higher prices at the pump. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed, and two more died of noncombat causes, in the Iran war. Yet, there is little evident disruption in the lives of the policymakers whose action — or inaction in some cases — has created stresses for Americans living with the consequences of Washington’s decisions. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who urged Trump to launch the war with Iran, along with his colleagues on Capitol Hill left Washington, D.C., last week with the DHS funding standoff unresolved. Graham has been pummeled by critics on the left and the right over pictures of him hanging out at Disney World. Graham’s trip is “the most visible part” of a disconnect that has quickly become a cultural touchstone — the Hollywood-focused website TMZ posted the snapshots of him — according to Elijah Haahr, a former Republican speaker of the Missouri House who now works as a talk radio host. “Congress has always been playing by a different set of rules,” Haahr said. “The more people think about that, the angrier they get. It makes everybody hate the entire Washington circuit.” Read more → More on the Iran war: Average U.S. gas price hits $4 for the first time since 2022, by Steve KopackA global jet fuel shortage is raising the cost of air travel, by Rob WileStocks have their worst quarter since 2022, raising doubts about Trump’s economic playbook, by Steve KopackAre there talks to end the Iran war? Depends on which side you ask, by Abigail WilliamsFollow live updates → That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.
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