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Guy Spier — a wealth manager who famously switched from banking to investing due to his his admiration for Warren Buffett — recently turned heads when he shut down his Aquamarine Fund.He said the advantages that catapulted stock-pickers like Buffett and his longtime partner Charlie Munger to fame and fortune no longer exist.
In his view, the golden age of information has made it too easy for everyone to look everywhere and find overlooked opportunities for upside.Veteran fund manager George Noble not only disagrees with Spier's rationale, he also thinks it represents a buying opportunity."This is literally the most BULLISH SIGNAL for active management I've seen in years," he posted on Substack.Noble went on to cite that active stock-picking was previously declared dead in 1999, 2007, and 2012 due to technological advancement. And each time, active management was able to overcome and keep outperforming."Every single time, the obituary for active management was written at PRECISELY the wrong moment," Noble wrote. "The moment everyone is giving up on active management is the moment active managers are performing BETTER than they have in years."Noble said that those who are throwing in the towel on active management are part of the problem, since their tendency to load up on the Magnificent 7 elite comes at the expense of other, more high-upside opportunities.He doesn't think active fund management is dead. He just thinks investors need to think outside the box a bit more. "Nobody is looking at small-cap energy companies trading at 5x earnings," he said. "Nobody is looking at commodity producers with fortress balance sheets. Nobody is looking at emerging markets trading at historic discounts to US equities. That's where the edge lives.""Those of us willing to do the work, ignore the noise, and think independently? We have entered the golden age of stock picking," he continued.With that in mind, it's worth noting Noble's recent history of contrarian hot takes. Over the past few months, he's predicted that OpenAI is destined for failure and described Tesla as the stock market's biggest bubble.
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