Why Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains

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Why Bolsonaro failed to overthrow democracy – and why a threat remains
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Federal Police arrested some of Bolsonaro’s closest aides and carried out search warrants against former ministers and high-ranked military officers. The allegation: plotting a coup.

President Jair Bolsonaro summoned his ministers and staff to a meeting at his official residence on July 5, 2022. They discussed at length ways to prevent a defeat in the upcoming October elections. Everyone in the room seemed to agree that democracy should not stand in their way.

They are being investigated for allegedly hatching a military coup as a response to Lula da Silva’s victory in the vote. Amid searches, the police found a draft decree through which Bolsonaro would institute a state of siege in the country, hand over power to the generals, and put Justice Moraes behind bars.

Why, then, did Bolsonaro fail to overthrow democracy? Incompetence and self-deception have surely played a role, but there are more layers to Brazil’s democratic survival. One of them is that the Supreme Court seemed to be always one step ahead of Bolsonaro. The far right, spearheaded by Steve Bannon, used Brazil as a laboratory of extremist ideas, especially while Trump was still president. Democratic advocates, in turn, closed ranks with their Brazilian counterparts to resist Bolsonaro’s assault on human rights, public health, and the environment. With Biden in the White House, the US also helped constrain the Bolsonaro administration through diplomatic channels.

Testing the limits of democracy In fact, the Brazilian version of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots is a cautionary tale of how a coup attempt may take place even after the autocrat steps down. While Trump, who was still in office, stirred a mob to invade Congress and prevent the session that would certify the 2020 election results, chaos spread by pro-Bolsonaro hordes took place one week after Lula had been sworn in.

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