Aaron Schatz ranked the worst 12-1 teams ever by DVOA and point differential. How do the 2024 Chiefs stack up, and what's next for them?
An NFL team has to be good to get to 12-1. Bad teams don't win 12 out of 13 games. But not all 12-1 teams are created equal.might dominate its opponents week after week, winning by scores such as 44-0, 36-0 and 45-10. But another 12-1 team such as the 2024to take home the W. This season's Chiefs squad has 10 wins by one score, making them one of only four teams in NFL history with 10 or more one-score wins in a season .
The Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they fell in the divisional round to wild-card Baltimore 13-10. Despite 391 net yards, the Titans could only get the ball in the end zone once. They turned the ball over three times while Baltimore never did, and Ravens kicker Matt Stover hit a game-winning 43-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.This is the team I compare most to this season's Chiefs squad.
Hostetler moved the ball down the field, and Matt Bahr hit a 42-yard field goal as time expired for a 15-13 win. The 49ers, dependent all season on last-second scores, had their season ended by one for the other team.We'll go back before the existence of DVOA ratings for the No. 2 team . The 1976 Raiders were the second-worst 12-1 team in terms of point differential, and a projected historical DVOA estimate ranked them seventh in the league for the entire regular season.
Instead, the bigger problem has been the decline on defense in recent weeks. In Weeks 1-7, they ranked second in defensive DVOA behind only the Vikings. In Weeks 8-14, they have ranked 29th in defensive DVOA. Some of the explanation is the injury to cornerback), but this decline can't just be tied to a single player. Turnovers are a problem, as the Chiefs have just one interception and two forced fumbles since Week 8.
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