President Donald Trump threatened to “take” Cuba, after imposing an oil blockade that has pushed the country’s economy to the point of collapse. Experts explained what’s at stake for the U.S. if Trump acts on his threat.
A woman rides an electric scooter past an image of the late Cuba n leader Fidel Castro, with the caption "Socialism or Death", in Havana, Cuba , on March 19, 2026. Since the U.S. government captured Venezuela n leader Nicolás Maduro in January, the U.
S. has blocked oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba. Venezuela was previously Cuba’s main petroleum supplier, and Trump has threatened other countries with tariffs if they sell fuel to Cuba. The U.S. and Cuba have been at odds — economically and sometimes militarily — since the Cuban revolution led by Fidel Castro in 1959. But the current crisis is among the most difficult Cuba has faced since then.said his government has started talking with the Trump administration. He said the talks are aimed at finding ways to resolve the countries’ bilateral problems. Díaz-Canel floated allowing Cubans living abroad to invest in Cuba’s economy. His government alsoBut the Cuban regime seems unwilling to give up its decades-long monopoly on power, even as the Trump administration tries to push the president out, according to "The nature of the Cuban government, the structure of the Cuban government and the members of the Cuban government are not part of the negotiation," Fernández de CossíoWith the possibility of U.S. military action against Cuba looming — along with the potential for Cuba’s government and economy to collapse — we considered key questions about the island and its relationship to the U.S.The current energy squeeze was triggered by a U.S. oil blockade, but over the long term, significant blame for Cuba’s dire economy falls on the Cuban government itself, experts said. "At its core lies a rigid, socialist, centralized economic model marked by extensive nationalization, a bloated public sector, and deep resistance to reform," said Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, an assistant professor and Cuba scholar at the University of Virginia."The leadership’s reluctance to liberalize likely stems from concerns that meaningful market reforms could create independent centers of power and erode the regime’s control over society." The Cuban government and military have long influenced or controlled major economic sectors, and one of the most important — tourism — failed to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, she said. The situation worsened in recent months with the U.S. military action against Venezuela.Experts widely agree the U.S. likely would see only modest economic benefits from Cuba’s government changing. "Cuba is a small market for U.S. products and exports almost nothing," said Sebastian A. Arcos, interim director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute. While a new government could mean U.S. companies could invest in Cuba for the first time in decades,"Cuba has little in the way of natural resources," said Will Freeman, a Latin America Studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank."There is potential in the tourism sector, but only if infrastructure and the energy grid are revamped, which is a big undertaking with no clear financing source."Would a change in Cuba’s government impact geopolitics? Cuba"has been a determined enemy of the U.S., one that has welcomed and collaborated with strategic enemies of the U.S.," Arcos said. It has also sheltered U.S. criminals and spied on the U.S. A friendlier government in Havana would help secure vital shipping lanes that carry a large amount of U.S. trade, said Jorge Duany, former director of the Cuban Research Institute. Preventing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba — and promoting democracy and human rights — also advances U.S. geopolitical interests, said Theodore Henken, a Baruch College sociologist and anthropologist who has studied Cuba. Regime change could lead to the resolution of decades-old claims of property seized from Cubans who fled the communist takeover, a dispute valued in the billions of dollars. However, some experts argue that potential U.S. gains are overstated. Aside from boosting the Trump administration’s embrace of right-leaning leaders in Central America and stripping China of listening stations it’s believed to have on the island,"The fact is that today, Cuba is relatively unimportant geopolitically," Henken said.Continued U.S. economic pressure likely would lead to more deaths, hunger and failing hospitals"No modern economy can function without fuel," Arcos said. For the U.S., the biggest direct impact from an intensifying humanitarian crisis would be instability or state collapse leading to mass emigration. That would run counter to the Trump administration’s high-priority effort to curb illegal immigration, and would most directly burden Florida, Trump’s home state. The sudden fall of the Cuban government might"create a chaotic power vacuum, which could provoke a prolonged, bloody, and expensive U.S. intervention," Duany said. Email interview with Jorge Duany, former director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, March 24, 2026 Email interview with Sebastian A. Arcos, interim director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, March 24, 2026 Email interview with Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, assistant professor and Cuba scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, March 25, 2026 Email interview with Theodore Henken, sociologist and anthropologist at Baruch College, March 24, 2026 Email interview with Richard Feinberg, professor of international political economy at the University of California-San Diego, March 24, 2026The SAVE America Act “would force Americans to register only in person, something only 5% of Americans do today."“There is no history … that shows an air campaign alone will result in positive regime change. In fact, there's not a single example of it in the entirety of American history.”“You cannot bring a firearm loaded with multiple magazines to any sort of protest that you want. It’s that simple.” Credit card companies would be “in violation of the law” if they don’t cap interest rates at 10% by Jan. 20. The SAVE America Act “requires everyone to re-register to vote in person and your driver’s license, REAL ID, or military ID aren’t even good enough.”“In the modern era, no American president has ordered more military strikes against as many different countries as Donald Trump.” The SAVE America Act “would force Americans to register only in person, something only 5% of Americans do today."
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