There are promising signs that cases will slow in early Omicron hotspots. But there are lots of ways for a wave to peak.
, health officials are warning that cases are rising faster than they can track. What does it mean, then, for a pandemic wave to peak, given this patchwork mix of spiking and dropping cases nationwide?
In the model used by Fox’s team, “the peak is actually the point in time where the population has built up enough immunity due to the spreading virus to actually start being self limiting. You can think of this as transient herd immunity.” This isn’t the herd immunity that some had hoped would end the pandemic, since it won’t last, but for the moment, the virus has less fuel to burn.
Testing water for the pathogen can add helpful evidence: The company Biobot contracts with a number of counties across the country But a true peak is still only visible in retrospect. Asked how long he would need to wait to be confident that a surge had peaked, Sharara writes, “There is no magic number of days. What we look for are results from wastewater samples from consecutive days all confirming a downward trend.”Biobot has begun to record a sustained decline in SARS-CoV-2 in the Boston area, which suggests that the number of new infections is really beginning to shrink.
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