On the heels of a new annual heat record set in 2022, average ocean surface temperatures around the globe have spiked since early March. Translation: What might seem like a small uptick in temperature can have profound effects.
Now, scientists see signs of another El Niño brewing as Pacific waters off Ecuador and Peru quickly warm up. It is there that El Niño got its name, because the warming is known to disrupt the region’s fishing industry around Christmas — El Niño refers to “the Christ child” in Spanish., and a 90 percent chance it arrives by the end of the year.
That suggests the spike in ocean temperatures may ease as the heat is released through evaporation, Trenberth added. Similar warming was observed in early 2014, but El Niño did not arrive until fall 2015, eventually strengthening dramatically into the following year.Trenberth said the recent shifts are “indeed signaling the likely beginning of the next major basin-wide El Niño event developing this year and likely leading to new highs in global mean surface temperatures in 2024.
The recent surge in ocean temperatures, while startling, follows on a decades-long trend of rising heat in the world’s oceans, which scientists say have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat in Earth’s system in recent decades due to rising greenhouse gases.Warmer water raises the odds of ocean heat waves in certain regions of the globe, with potentially catastrophic consequences for marine life.
The authors wrote that data shows the heating has both accelerated over time and increasingly has reached deeper depths.
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