Our experts dive in to the lines and player props that offer value for Week 13 and share their tips and bets.
Stephen A. Smith explains how he's looking for Shedeur Sanders to show he belongs in the NFL ahead of the Browns' matchup vs. the 49ers. Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.Daniel Jones . When pressured this season, Jones' off-target rate jumps to 25%. And we saw what this Texans pass rush did toWith the Broncos coming off the bye week, I like Sean Payton's offense versus a Washington defensive unit that is giving up a league-worst 6.3 yards per play. This should be a heavily-schemed game plan for quarterback, with defined throws. I like the run game matchup for Denver, too. And let's not forget about the Broncos' pass rush, which has produced a league-leading 49 sacks this season. They will speed up' first start, the Falcons got the drop on the Saints defense. They changed the offense dramatically, running far more under-center dropbacks and 13 personnel sets than they had previously.out, I expect the Jets to play tons of press man coverage across the board on the Falcons' receivers, and their pass rush is more than enough to heat the immobile Cousins up in the pocket.at quarterback for New York, the passing game is marginally better, and the Jets retain a strong running game. That's the difference against a Falcons defense that is 28th in rushing success rate. Expect the Jets to control pace and tempo in this game and get multiple takeaways as well. I also like them on the money line.I was on the Bengals last week and like fading the Patriots again at a number longer than a touchdown. The Patriots are at home this week, but they're catching a bad swing of health after having spent most of the season extremely healthy. Rookie left tackle The Giants pass rush should feast on long-and-late downs, and while the Patriots' running game is improved, they can't exploit a bad Giants run defense the way the Lions did. With quarterbackback, expect a healthy dose of scrambling and play extension against the Patriots' heavy man coverage approach. A few explosive plays should keep this within one score. Styles make fights here, and the Steelers' style on offense is a nightmare for the Bills. The Bills' defense is one of the lightest in football; Pittsburgh is one of the heaviest. In expected rainy and windy weather, that favors the Steelers. Buffalo's run defense allows a dead-last 6.6 yards per carry when facing multiple tight end sets this season, and Pittsburgh runs more multiple tight end sets than any offense in football. The Steelers should be able to string together long drives and pick up tons of yards after contact. On the defensive side of the ball, Pittsburgh wants to be a man-coverage team and struggles when asked to play zone. But the Bills don't have the receivers necessary to punish Pittsburgh's man-heavy defense. The Bills struggled mightily with the pass rush duo ofunder heavy pressure and to make some bad mistakes accordingly. I'll have some Steelers money line in pocket here as well.Tristan H. Cockcroft details that Will Anderson Jr. has a favorable schedule to finish the season.In three games against DeMeco Ryans' defense, Taylor has totaled 188, 48 and 105 yards. And in that 48-yard game,. put up 56 rushing yards of his own, and the Colts only had 43 plays to the Texans' 73. It was a weird one. Altogether, Taylor averaged 5.2 yards per rush in three games against the Texans, and 18.2% of his runs have gone for 10+ yards -- both above his averages since 2023. The Texans, for as great of a defense as they are, run predictable fronts and are accordingly easier to scheme against in the running game, especially if you're familiar with them as a divisional opponent. As quarterback Daniel Jones continues sliding through his slump, expect coach Shane Steichen to rely on Taylor heavily on early downs to keep the Colts out of clear dropback situations. So long as Taylor pops one big one -- which he seemingly always does -- we'll have the volume necessary to get to this number.Allen has thrown for over 240 yards in four straight games, and he gets a Pittsburgh defense on Sunday allowing an average of 258.7 passing yards per game . Look for Allen to target the Steelers' single-high coverages on Sunday. Take the over. McCaffrey has 40 or more yards receiving in every game he has played this season, so the lower total here reflects the matchup versus the Browns' defense. I get that. But let's remember that Cleveland is a man-heavy unit, which will allow the 49ers to isolate McCaffrey on backfield releases or flexed alignments. And CMC can be a top target underneath forPittman has logged five or more receptions in four of his past five games. Think in-breaking concepts to the middle of the field here versus the Texans' defense , plus the slants and quicks versus off-coverage. Etienne has rushed for 60 or more yards in three of his past four games, with at least 15 touches in each. His play speed is jumping on the tape, too. Let's bet on Etienne to hit the over versus a Titans defense allowing an average of 4.8 YPC . In the last two weeks of the Chip Kelly era in Las Vegas, Smith had 42 and 44 pass attempts, respectively. The called run rate for the Raiders' offense has been below 30% in four of its past five games. Now, Kelly is out and Greg Olsen is in. If Pete Carroll, a longtime believer in good defense and possession offense, has any influence over the new offensive playcalling, it'll be this: Run the ball. The Chargers are a gettable run defense and a shell pass defense, too, meaning Smith will be forced to check down when he does attempt passes. I expect a successful day on the ground for, which should shorten the field and the game clock with which Smith has to pass. Only two quarterbacks this year have gone over their passing yardage props against the Chargers, and with the philosophy shift inbound in Las Vegas, Smith won't have the opportunity necessary to become the third.Ward has at least two carries in each of his past four games and set career highs with six carries for 37 yards and a score last week against the. The Seahawks and Texans are high pressure teams, and Ward responded by using his legs more than he has for much of this season. This increased rushing usage has coincided with the absence of star receiver Ward now gets a Jaguars defense currently allowing 4.7 yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks -- a number well above league average -- despite not facing any of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks. In the Jaguars' past four games, they have surrendered 20 rushing yards toand nine to Geno Smith. Ward's legs will be a factor in this one, especially if the game is close late. It's hard to bet into Purdy's current arm strength, as throws are clearly dying on the quarterback as he returns from his turf toe injury. In Cleveland on Sunday, winds are expected to gust in the 30 mph range, and rain could affect Purdy's grip on the football. I expect to see a similar game plan from Kyle Shanahan as we saw in the second half against the Panthers, when Purdy had only 3.6 air yards per attempt on nine passes. The Browns' defense is a stifling group that tackles well, so while the 49ers will certainly get some yards after the catch, I don't think they'll get enough to actually get Purdy to this figure. The Browns should also pressure Purdy a lot, which will invite Purdy to scramble instead. If both teams turn out with heavy run rates over expectation, the cumulative snaps won't be there for Purdy to get over this number.I took Sanders' rushing under last week, based on some awfully poor player tracking speed stats, per Telemetry Sports, from him in college last season. The lowlights: His change of direction was in the 57th percentile, his acceleration was in the 23rd percentile, and his speed over expectation was in the first percentile. That was in comparison to fellow college quarterbacks. I'll confess that this is not a market I usually bet. But considering those numbers and that Sanders recorded negative-1 rushing yards last week, 17.5 still feels too high. The two quarterbacks who have had 17.5 rushing yard lines multiple times this year areand Justin Herbert, and I feel like it's a reasonable bet that Sanders will be less of a running threat than them. I've written plenty this year about running back reception splits against man and zone coverage. Running backs catch passes almost twice as frequently against zone compared to man, so the fact that the Falcons play 54% man coverage is part of the reason I'm fading Hall here. But it's not the only reason. Here's another running back reception split: the blitz. Since 2021, running backs have recorded receptions 14% of the time when their team is not blitzed, but only 8% of the time when they are -- presumably because they stay home to block when extra rushers are coming. And at a 38% blitz rate , the Falcons will be sending extra rushers plenty.I'm kicking myself for not doing this earlier, but it's better late than never. Smith-Njigba is having a ridiculous season, and I don't see how he's not a heavy favorite over Jonathan Taylor. Here is the highest yards per route run by any player in a season since 2007:Taylor is having a nice season, but I don't see how he's in the same ballpark. Consider: Taylor's yards per carry ranks 27th best in the same span . Smith-Njigba is blowing away the field, historically.
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