US CPI holds the key

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US CPI holds the key
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On Friday, U.S. stocks experienced minimal fluctuations, yet they closed the week with a decline of 1.5%. This dip comes as a response to the mounting

experienced minimal fluctuations, yet they closed the week with a decline of 1.5%. This dip comes as a response to the mounting indicators of a robust U.S. economy, including noteworthy metrics like the ISM services index, weekly jobless claims, and an uptick in oil prices. These developments occurred against the backdrop of an interest rate environment that, while relatively stable, has shown some signs of edging upwards.

As the prevailing narrative coalesces around the notion that the U.S. economy is stable, investors adjust their approach to interpreting growth signals. Earlier in the summer, positive indications of economic growth were seen as a means to reduce the probability of a recession – a development generally favourable for corporate earnings and stock markets.

Despite the release of robust economic data points, the rates markets displayed minimal reactions throughout the week, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields maintaining a stable range between 4.20% and 4.30%. This resilience in interest rates is noteworthy, given the positive economicThe enduring stability in rates suggests that market participants are maintaining a cautious stance, potentially reflecting confidence in the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.

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