This week we get the much-anticipated ECB meeting. This comes at an interesting time for financial markets. The euro is sinking, EUR/USD fell 1.18% la
have trended slightly higher this summer. Thus, one final hike from the ECB and then a prolonged pause is our expectation for this meeting, even if we think that the ECB and other central banks will be loath to communicate a willingness to cut rates at this stage. Elsewhere, as mentioned, the US CPI report will also be watched closely.
The BOE’s next steps could also be decided this week, with the latest labour market data released on Tuesday. The 3 MoM unemployment rate for July is expected to edge up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the key wage data is expected to show average earnings ex-bonus for the 3-months to July at 7.6% from 7.8%. This is still high, however, as we have mentioned, the lowest paid could still be seeing large wage losses, but high and middle earners could have stable earnings, so the average seems higher.
It's also worth keeping an eye on China and the Apple share price. It fell 6% last week after Beijing banned the use of iPhones for some government workers. The risk is that the ban will be put in place more broadly in future. The market is not ready to buy Apple yet, and in the pre-market, Apple’s share price is only rising by 0.3%. Thus, there is some concern in the market that Apple could be in Beijing’s sights, and if we see more interference then its share price could fall further.
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