This Saturday night in Perth, Australia, lightweight champion Islam Makhachev faces long-time featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski in the main event of UFC 284. The stakes of the champion vs. champion headliner will be Makhachev's lightweight strap, while a win over Volkanovski will clearly position Makhachev as the UFC's No.1-ranked pound-for-pound king. The most interesting aspect of Saturday night's mega-fight is how contrasting the individual journeys were for each fighter to get to this moment.
After cleaning out the featherweight division and earning his 22nd consecutive win , Volkanovski needed a challenge. Moving up a weight class for the opportunity to become a two-division champ is the natural next step. The problem is the man who stands in his way. Before securing the lightweight title in dominating fashion in October, some floated whether Makhachev's meteoric rise through the lightweight rankings was warranted.
It will probably be some time before we see the lightweight champion at that price again. Makhachev is currently a -400 favorite against Vollkanovksi, the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. When you see a fighter as decorated as Volkanovski, who hasn't lost since 2013, as such a massive underdog, it looks like great value on the surface. But to me, it's a signal of the respect Islam has earned in the market and how the weight class impacts the potential outcome.
Unlike his fights at featherweight, Volkanovski's win condition is solely in the striking realm. Makhachev's only loss of his career, when he got clipped by Adriano Martins, gives us a glimpse of how Volkanovski can stun the world as a +300 underdog. He has to be aggressive and sharp, with good lateral movement, to prohibit Makhachev from cutting off the cage.
What also makes Makhachev so dangerous is his recent improvements in his boxing. It allows him to set up his opponents patiently without leaving himself open by over-committing to his takedowns. I can see Volkanovski having some success early in the fight, but it won't take long for Islam to latch on to openings and put Volk on his back.
Volkanovski's speed and footwork will only take him so far, as I see Makhachev as the clear side. The size difference is a massive challenge when you look at it through the lens of having to fight arguably the most dominant grappler in the sport at his natural weight class. I don't see Volkanovski lasting all five rounds here, so I bet Makhachev to finish the fight inside the distance at -155 at BetMGM.
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