U.S. Treasury yields will rise significantly over the coming month, according to analysts polled by Reuters who were split over whether the risk of a U.S. default was higher or the same as prior stand-offs over the debt ceiling.
President Joe Biden and top lawmakers in Congress have about three weeks to strike a deal over raising the $31.4 trillion U.S.Half of the 28 respondents in the May 5-11 Reuters poll said the risk of a default was higher this time compared to prior episodes of debt ceiling brinkmanship. The rest said the risk was the same.
Asked in what range the 10-year yield, currently at 3.38%, would trade over the coming month, the median response from strategists who were polled was 3.30%-3.60%. Individual responses ranged from as low as 3.0% to as high as 4.0%. Uncertainty over whether the debt ceiling will be raised on time, along with lingering worries around small to mid-sized U.S. banks, has added pressure to an already-turbulent Treasury market this year.
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