India's consumer inflation likely cooled to an 18-month low in April as rises in food and fuel prices moderated, keeping it below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month, a Reuters poll of economists found.
Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, was expected to have fallen again in April, as price rises of cereals and edible oils softened., was forecast to have fallen to 4.80% in April from 5.66% in March, according to the median view from the May 8-9 Reuters poll of 53 economists.
"Food inflation was a mixed bag on the month, with cereals and vegetables easing, whilst pulses and milk rose. Lower energy prices continue to filter through to fuel components," wrote Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.However, inflation was expected to remain well above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% in the coming quarters, according to a separate poll. It would average 5.3% for the current fiscal year and 5.0% for next.
"We are looking at April and May being the bottom on inflation and then we start seeing slight upward movement above 5.0%, although below the RBI's 6.0%," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.
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