The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has lowered its projections for the U.S. population in 30 years, citing declining birth rates and reduced immigration. The CBO now predicts 372 million residents by 2055, a 2.8% decrease from its previous estimate. Population growth is expected to significantly slow in the coming decades, with the annual growth rate projected to drop to 0.1% between 2036 and 2055.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its population projections for the United States, forecasting a smaller population in 30 years than previously estimated. The CBO now projects 372 million residents by 2055, a 2.8% decrease from its 2022 projection of 383 million. This downward revision is attributed to declining birth rates and lower-than-expected immigration.The CBO's projections indicate that population growth will significantly slow in the coming decades.
Over the next 10 years, the average annual growth rate will be 0.4%, but it will subsequently decline to 0.1% between 2036 and 2055. This projected growth rate of 0.2% over the next three decades is less than a quarter of the rate observed between 1975 and 2024. Without immigration, the U.S. population is expected to begin shrinking in 2033, primarily because fertility rates are projected to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.Factors contributing to the revised projections include a decline in projected fertility rates from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman over the next 30 years. Additionally, the CBO cites an executive order that temporarily suspends asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials deem themselves overwhelmed, leading to reduced immigration. The CBO releases these population projections annually to inform decisions regarding federal budgets, the economy, and the estimation of Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. While the U.S. Census Bureau counts the resident population, the CBO's projections encompass the resident population, U.S. citizens living abroad, and others eligible for Social Security benefits
POPULATION PROJECTIONS CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE IMMIGRATION FERTILITY RATES SOCIAL SECURITY
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