Labor market is cooling off, but it’s still very tight
The post-pandemic boom in hiring appears to be over, and businesses are adding fewer workers. Is the slowdown in employment going to continue?The forecast The United States is expected to add 170,000 jobs in September, keeping the increase below 200,000 for the fourth month in a row. The last time that happened was in 2018.
Anything more than that could exacerbate the worst labor shortage since World War II, drive wages up and make it harder for the Fed to get inflation under control. Unemployment rate The percentage of jobless Americans seeking work is forecast to fall a tick from 3.8% to 3.7%. There’s no reason to think layoffs have risen much, if at all. The number of people applying for jobless benefits, for instance, has fallen back to pandemic-era lows and is hovering around 200,000.Wage growth Average hourly wages are forecast to rise 0.3% in September, a touch faster than in the prior month. The Fed would prefer slightly smaller increases each month.Central-bank officials say annual wage growth has to slow to 2% to 3% to help the Fed in its fight against inflation.
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