TSA Wait Times: What Prediction Odds Show About DHS Shutdown

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TSA Wait Times: What Prediction Odds Show About DHS Shutdown
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The shutdown has left tens of thousands of Transportation Security Administration officers working without pay.

Travelers across the U.S. are facing hours-long airport security lines as the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security drags on. The shutdown has left tens of thousands of Transportation Security Administration officers working without pay.

Currently, traders have assigned the highest probability to the shutdown ending after March 31.As TSA officers continue working without pay and hundreds resign or call out, airport security lines have stretched for hours at major hubs. For travelers, that equates to many missed flights and rebookings during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.As Washington remains deadlocked, prediction markets are offering a real‑time snapshot of expectations for when DHS funding may finally be restored. On Polymarket, traders are assigning the highest probability to the shutdown ending after March 31. As of Monday morning, that outcome was trading at roughly 65 percent, compared with a 23 percent probability that the shutdownThe market has drawn more than $1 million in trading volume since launching in mid‑February. Kalshi's DHS funding market showed similar probability. Traders there assign about a 45 percent chance that DHS is funded before April 1, with significantly higher probability that some form of funding arrives before mid or late April.With frustration boiling over at major hubs—such as New York and Atlanta—the Trump administration hasOver the weekend, security lines at some of the nation's busiest airports stretched into terminals, parking garages and, in some cases, lasted several hours. At Georgia's Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport, travelers were advised to arrive up to four hours early, with some still missing flights, according to CBS News., while hundreds have resigned since the shutdown began on February 14. In response, President Donald Trump announced that ICE agents would begin deploying to airports to assist TSA with non‑screening duties, such as monitoring entrances and exits and managing crowds. "On Monday, ICE will be going to airports to help our wonderful TSA Agents who have stayed on the job despite the fact that the Radical Left Democrats, who are only focused on protecting hard line criminals who have entered our Country illegally, are endangering the USA by holding back the money that was long ago agreed to with signed and sealed contracts, and all," TrumpSo far, the Senate has repeatedly failed to advance a House‑passed bill that would fund DHS through September, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward. Democrats have withheld support unless new restrictions are placed on immigration enforcement practices, while Republicans argue the department should be funded without those changes. "I would be hopeful that our Democratic colleagues would come back with an offer that shows that they're looking to find a pathway forward," Republican Senator Katie Britt of Alabama previously told reporters. However, a Democratic aide told Politico on Friday that there was still"a ways to go" before an agreement would be considered acceptable to Democrats' base. In the meantime, delays could worsen, and smaller airports could face operational risks."While the Democrats continue to put the safety, dependability, and ease of our air travel at risk, President Trump is taking action to deploy hundreds of ICE officers, that are currently funded by Congress, to airports being adversely impacted. This will help bolster TSA efforts to keep our skies safe and minimize air travel disruptions." Everett Kelley, the president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said in a statement: "More than 50,000 TSA employees have worked without pay for over five weeks. Hundreds have quit. And Washington's answer isn't to pay them. It's to send ICE agents to do their jobs."In the short term, federal officials say ICE agents will continue deploying to the airports most affected by staffing shortages, focusing on crowd control and non‑screening duties. TSA officers remain unpaid during the partial government shutdown, and wait times are unlikely to improve significantly until Congress restores DHS funding and paychecks resume.or use the following links to lock in $10 in bonuses once registration is complete and you have completed $100 worth of trades. Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator's terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change., ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not"both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

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