Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government
in all but one swing state just over a week after he surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024in Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin , Georgia , Arizona , and North Carolina . The bettors gave Harris a narrow 1% advantage over Trump in Nevada.
If the November results match the 2024 election betting odds, Trump would win 306 electoral votes while needing just 270 to win the presidency. If the current polls reflect the actual outcome, on the other hand, he would win 302 electoral votes. Both the polls and the odds predict a Trump victory three weeks out.
The Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania Senate races are the only three others where bettors gave the incumbent party a notable chance to lose. Bettors gave Republican Dave McCormick a 23.4% chance to upset Sen. Bob Casey , Republican Mike Rogers a 26.5% chance to beat Rep. Elissa Slotkin , and Republican Eric Hovde a 23.5% chance of ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin .
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