Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government
Nearly two dozen Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2024, with five incumbents seen as vulnerable, while only 10 Republicans face reelection. However, Republicans in six critical races are trailing Trump and their Democratic opponents.
The only Senate GOP candidate who is consistently leading is Montana Republican Tim Sheehy. In an average of polling, Sheehy is ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester Sen. Jon Tester walks to a vote on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023, in Washington. Tester faced off with Republican challenger Tim Sheehy during their first debate on Sunday, June 9, 2024.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has a 51-seat advantage and the ability to tap Vice President Kamala Harris for any tiebreaking votes. He is already expected to lose one seat in West Virginia with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin . If Republicans win in Montana, they’ll be able to capture the majority, but the race for control of the upper chamber is still up in the air in a cycle that favors Republicans.
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