'He may be a little bit concerned about being seen as extreme on the abortion issue,' a political observer said.
Trump won the evangelical vote in 2016 and 2020. At this point, few believe he won't do so again in 2024, regardless of his nuanced position on abortion.
"All he needs to do is to say 'three Supreme Court justices' and 'Dobbs,' and they will fall in line and continue to overlook or forgive his secularism, his wishy-washy pro-life record, sexual promiscuity and lack of knowledge of the Bible," said Karen Kedrowski, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University.
"The other Republican candidates are here talking about God and religion, but only Pence has real evangelical bona fides," she told."Yet Pence doesn't have much traction given his actions on January 6—which were both brave and correct ones, by the way." But Iowa's evangelical voters, Grinnell College professor Barbara Trish said, are also a strategy-minded group and are more likely to pick the candidate most likely to win in November 2024. Whatever Trump's reasoning, she told, it's hard to accurately interpret whether skipping events with those voters is a strategic move or simply an unwillingness to engage in the ritualistic trials of the Iowa caucuses.
"I wouldn't ascribe too much rationality to Trump," Trish continued."There may be some calculations, or he may just not feel like he wants to campaign in Iowa. That said, it's hard to imagine he's afraid of DeSantis in any way. As the former president routinely reminds us, DeSantis just isn't getting the sort of traction he needs among GOP activists."
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