Today's Business Headlines: 02/19/2026
One of the bank’s top researchers on economic policy, Michael Feroli, warned the decision could still spark heightened trade uncertainty and stunt business spending even as Trump administration officials vowed to revive the duties using other laws.
“The Court’s ruling remanded this issue to the lower courts, so we won’t know the full amount or timing of any … rebates,” Feroli wrote. “While the official data from is a bit stale, we estimate the amount at stake to be around $150-200 billion,” he added in the note to clients.The research paper by the Jamie Dimon-led lender warned that the Trump administration could be forced to refund up to $200 billion if companies succeed with lawsuits that seek a refund of the tariffs.“If the rebates were passed on to consumers, the boost to activity would be significant. In the more likely event that businesses keep the cash, the boost to activity should be smaller.”US households could save $900 this year thanks to Trump tariff ruling — but ‘dividend checks’ dealt major blowThey include retail giant Costco, clothing brand J.Crew, footwear firm Crocs, Goodyear, and EssilorLuxottica, the French-Italian multinational that owns the Ray-Ban and Oakley eyewear brands.Trump’s tariffs had been a signature economic policy that he had promised to introduce as a way of tackling what he called unfair trade.Trump dealt huge tariff blow as Supreme Court rules them illegal — and US may be forced to pay back billionsEuropean trade pact with Trump scrambled by Supreme Court tariff ruling US households could save $900 this year thanks to Trump tariff ruling — but ‘dividend checks’ dealt major blow JPMorgan forecast that any legal rulings that could force the administration to hand back duties payments and the subsequent economic disruption from yet another trade policy upheaval would lead to a bigger fiscal deficit in 2026. The paper said it would be equivalent to 6.6% of GDP, a half-point increase — roughly $2.1 trillion based on current economic data. Governments run a fiscal deficit when they spend more money in a year than they collect in taxes, adding to a country’s overall debt pile. But the research paper by the US financial giant underlined that senior members of the administration repeatedly warned that tariffs would not be scrapped.The research paper warned that an overhaul of the tariff system using a different legal authority would create fresh headwinds for US firms.Feroli’s note to clients quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying the administration could “recreate the exact tariff structure” through other means, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was quoted as saying that “tariffs are here to stay.” “Given the statements made by various administration officials, a reasonable base case is that the administration will use the various legal authorities to leave unchanged the average effective tariff rate facing US purchasers,” the top economist wrote. “Even this outcome would entail a significant realignment of tariffs placed on different products from different countries, thereby creating winners and losers. This would also mean a material increase in trade policy uncertainty,” he added. The ruling leaves intact some sectoral tariffs, but JPMorgan economists estimate the average effective tariff rate will drop from 9.4% in December, the latest available data, to just over 4% without the IEEPA duties.That’s up sharply from 2.3% in 2024, before Trump’s move to slap tariffs across a wide range of industries began.Tesla unveils cheaper Cybertruck at under $60K — but there's a catch US households could save $900 this year thanks to Trump tariff ruling — but ‘dividend checks’ dealt major blowDo the Jets need to pick Arvell Reese at No. 2? | Gang’s All Here The research paper by the Jamie Dimon-led lender warned that the Trump administration could be forced to refund up to $200 billion if companies succeed with lawsuits that seek a refund of the tariffs.Trump's tariffs had been a signature economic policy that he had promised to introduce as a way of tackling what he called unfair trade.The research paper warned that an overhaul of the tariff system using a different legal authority would create fresh headwinds for US firms.
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