Volodymyr Zelenskiy may be forced to accept an unpalatable compromise, however well his troops do on the battlefield, writes foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall
last year, Russia eventually agrees a conditional ceasefire. Vladimir Putin hails the “strategic neutralisation” of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is obliged to temporarily postpone his drive to restore his country’s pre-2014 borders.retaining roughly 85%
The US and its west European Nato allies declare that democratic Ukraine’s sovereign independence, and the global rules-based order, are saved. Poland and other east European states are less sure. Ukraine’s EU accession is dangled anew. Nato membership will be even trickier, as a Berlin-Brussels spat. A final settlement “peace process” may take years. Renewed conflict will be a constant fear.
Yet like it or not, this increasingly appears the most likely outcome. A durable truce’s wider appeal is obvious. It would stop the slaughter, head off Russia-Nato nuclear-armed escalation, mitigate global economic, energy and food crises, and bring a sort of peace.Is shoddy compromise unavoidable? No. In theory, either side could yet win a decisive victory. But much more likely, absent a deal, is a bloody, costly, low-intensity stalemate, dragging on for years.
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