After stinking up the joint in OKC, Naz Reid looked more like himself in Game 3. Jason Logan expects more good than bad from Reid tonight, and he breaks down why in his Thunder vs. Timberwolves props.
After stinking up the joint in OKC, Naz Reid looked more like himself in Game 3. Jason Logan expects more good than bad from Reid tonight, and he breaks down why in his Thunder vs. Timberwolves props.Just when you think you have the Western Conference finals figured out, they flip the script.
The Minnesota Timberwolves unleashed hell on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, blasting it by a thousand points and tightening the series count to 2-1. Minnesota’s blowout win makes it very difficult to sift through the wreckage and weigh which player performances were isolated and which ones can carry over to tonight.Reid played only 19 minutes in the one-sided win, but registered 10 points, eight rebounds, and four personal fouls. He was also 2-for-3 from 3-point range after shooting a collective 0-for-12 in the two games in Oklahoma City. Reid is a much better shooter inside the Target Center, finishing the season with a 41% success rate from distance at home compared to just 34.5% away from Minnesota. He's scored only 10 and four points in the opening two games of the series, shooting a combined 4-for-19 while playing 28 minutes in relief. His Game 4 projections all sit north of 12 points with a ceiling close to 14, while his minutes models range from 24 to 27.5. My number comes out to 12.9 points from Reid tonight, which should have the Over 10.5 listed closer to -175 rather than the -125 asking price at bet365.isn’t having the same impact in the Western Conference Finals as he did against Denver in Round 2. The Thunder’s 7-footer found his minutes hacked down to just 19 in Game 3’s loss, with just five of those coming in the second half. Part of that was the T-Wolves’ runaway win, but OKC head coach Mark Daigneault opted to go with a smaller lineup to start the second half and it somewhat worked, with the Thunder surging back with an 11-2 start to the third quarter before Minnesota landed a KO punch with a 20-4 run. Oklahoma City could rotate Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe into the lineup more, in place of the two-center set Daigneault has been using. It would make the Thunder more active and versatile on defense, and the offense has shown a better output with Holmgren as the solo center. We’ve already seen market movement away from Hartenstein’s point production for Game 4, with some books opening as high as 8.5 points and quickly dropping to 7.5 . That adjustment has slowed down Under money. Hartenstein has scored just six points in each of the past two games of this series, as Minnesota clogs up the interior and forces play to the perimeter. His Game 4 projections vary based on his expected floor time, sitting between 7.4 and 9.5 points with his minutes around 27.5. However, he’s logged 19 and 20 minutes in two of the three games so far, and with OKC potentially tinkering with a quicker lineup, his usage could plummet. My number comes out just south of six points tonight.didn’t let OKC’s big loss shake his confidence for Game 4, telling the media things could always be worse after the 42-point shit-stomping. To steal a line from Ted Lasso, being a goldfish is probably the best approach for the Thunder tonight, and Williams' unwavering optimism will show from beyond the arc. The Oklahoma City guard isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep and has made two or more triples in two of the first three games of this series while recording at least two in nine of his 14 postseason games. Williams' outside touch has been much improved against Minnesota, firing at a 38.5% clip from deep after shooting sub-30% in the first two series. The Timberwolves' defensive game plan has plugged up the paint and forced OKC to the perimeter. All five of Williams’ 3-point makes have come from wide-open shots, with eight of his total 13 attempts going up with no defender within six feet. His Game 4 forecast ranges from 1.7 to 1.9 triples, and the ceiling is higher after going 2-for-5 from distance in just 25 minutes in Game 3.Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600. His best advice for bettors new and old is; Handicapping isn't a one size fits all process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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