Naz Reid was rendered ineffective toward the end of the Timberwolves-Warriors series, but the Thunder are a whole other ball of wax. Our NBA betting picks and prop plays believe Reid will be much more involved in T-Wolves vs. Thunder on May 20, 2025.
Naz Reid was rendered ineffective toward the end of the Timberwolves-Warriors series, but the Thunder are a whole other ball of wax. Our NBA betting picks and prop plays believe Reid will be much more involved for Minnesota tonight.
The NBA officially crosses over into a new era when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. These fresh-faced franchises have arrived, with both rosters headlined by the next phase of basketball’s superstars.set with Golden State playing 30-plus minutes in the first two games, but as the Warriors went smaller and mixed up the frontcourt rotations, Reid’s floor time took a hit. He played 25, 24, and 21 minutes in the final three games, and his stats reflected it. On the season, Reid averaged more than six rebounds on 10.5 rebounding chances per game. That advanced metric has dropped to just below 8.0 chances in the postseason and an average of just 3.6 boards an outing., which is a long and athletic team. That should have Minnesota leaning into the fan favorite a lot more, especially in Game 1. In his four meetings with the Thunder in the regular season, Reid cleaned the glass with reckless abandon, posting eight, 11, 11, and 14 rebounds in those clashes. His rebound total for Game 1 sits at 4.5 Over/Under — a bar he's topped only three times in the playoffs — but player projections are flirting with six rebounds with projections ranging from 5.0 to 5.8 boards tonight. I believe the ceiling could be much higher, based off the shift in pace for the T-Wolves against this up-tempo Oklahoma City attack. The Thunder play at a much faster tempo, generating more possessions and more shots, and therefore more rebounding chances. Even with a conservative number at 5.6 rebounds from Reid, that projection should have the Over 4.5 priced around -170.’s offensive pop took a backseat against Denver, with the slender 7-footer more concerned about slowing down Nikola Jokic and seeing his minutes go up-and-down with coaching adjustments. Holmgren can focus more on his offensive output against the Timberwolves, especially when it comes to stretching the floor with his outside shooting touch. Holmgren can take and make a bunch of 3-pointers, and should he draw T-Wolves’ rim protector Rudy Gobert as a defender, he can play from the perimeter — pulling the shot blocker out of the paint — to open up lanes to the basket. So far in the playoffs, Holmgren is shooting at a 32% clip from distance, averaging 1.5 makes on 4.8 attempts from outside. His player projections sit right around that postseason average, ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 triples in Game 1. Minnesota will look to put the clamps on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so expect the defense to collapse on SGA every time he puts the ball on the ground. Drive-and-kick plays will be very live for Holmgren, who hit three or more 3-pointers in three of the four games with Memphis in Round 1.With the Thunder defense thriving on chaos, Minnesota needs the steady hands of Conley to control the pace and protect the basketball. He’s been phenomenal at just that in the postseason, with a grand total of only nine turnovers in 10 games. Conley is also making plays with the ball in his hands. After averaging just 2.6 assists on 4.0 potential assists against the L.A. Lakers in Round 1, he posted five or more assists in the five games versus Golden State, including eight dimes in Game 5 — with that advanced metric spiking to 7.0 potential assists an outing. As mentioned above, this Western final with OKC will be played at a much faster pace that previous playoff pairings, upping to opportunity for possessions and playmaking. Game 1 models range from 4.0 to 5.8 dimes from the point guard tonight, with my number closer to 5.0 assists.Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. 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His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”Eric RosalesCopyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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