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immigrants to snakes, could win a second term in the White House on the strength of gains among Arab, Muslim, and Hispanic voters.
Through the destabilizing effect of the Israel-Hamas war, and suddenly, Vice President Kamala Harris is at risk of losing the presidential election because of Hispanic, Arab, and Muslim voters in a handful of swing states either sitting out the election or defecting to the GOP.Hispanic voters have voted overwhelmingly Democratic for decades, and this bloc has been key to Democrats’ presidential victories and has padded the party’s congressional delegation.
If Trump carried his 2020 states, plus Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, he would have 252 Electoral College votes. This means he would win if he could carry one more state — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.In Michigan, the key demographic could be a different minority demographic: Arab and Muslim voters.
Earlier this fall, Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-born Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, endorsed Trump. Polls and reporting suggest many Muslim and Arab voters who backed Biden in 2020 will stay home in 2024Trump is tied with Harris among Arab voters, a demographic that overlaps largely, though not entirely, with the Muslim vote.
On the Muslim and Arab front, the main problem is the Biden administration’s support of Israel in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump is seen as, 39% to 33%, to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but he is no less pro-Israel than Biden. Trump is arguably more so.Democrats have embraced an agenda of gender identity and aggressive sexual liberation in schools, and many Muslim and Arab populations are unhappy.
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