These 2 Economic Data Cycles May Hold Key to US Election Outcome

Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: . Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com

The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily because of the economy. Current conditions are far less extreme, of course. In fact, by a number of metrics, the economy looks relatively solid. But there are also plenty of challenges brewing so it’s debatable how much the economy will influence the results of Nov.

The current 4.3% unemployment rate for July is low by historical standards, but the trend is no longer friendly. That implies that the next two updates could show a further rise in the jobless rate going into the election. As a result, the question for political analytics: Will the recent run of disinflation dominate voters’ perceptions on election day? Or will the previous inflation surge still overshadow the collective view on Nov. 5?

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