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The downshift is prominent, but the estimate still points to low recession risk. The economy is on track to increase at a real 2.1% annualized pace in Q3, according to the median projection.
The obvious caveat: it’s still early in Q3 so the current nowcasts should be viewed cautiously. A lot can, and probably will, happen between now and late October, when the government publishes the initial Q3Today’s data also offers pushback to recent fears that a US recession has started or is imminent. In addition to today’s Q3 nowcast, a series of other business-cycle metrics support the case for downplaying recession fears in the immediate future.
There’s also a view in some circles that expect a sluggish growth rate will keep the US out of a formal recession but at the same time deliver subpar results that may feel like a mild downturn.
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