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The Total Fertility Rate is the most important measure of the birth rate. It is a modeled number that calculates how many babies each woman is having in her lifetime. Every wealthy country besides Israel has a TFR below 2, as do China and India. That means the adults in all of those countries are not replacing themselves.
But even if the birthrate stopped falling and stabilized where it is now, we may still be doomed to steady depopulation, according to one economist. “For many places with reliable records, last year’s birth numbers were between 10 per cent and 20 per cent lower than UN estimates. In Colombia, the UN estimate was 705,000 births. Yet its national statistical agency counted 510,000.”That’s below replacement, Fernandez argues, because the actual number of births needed to maintain a population is 2.21 rather than 2.10:
“However, in many developing countries fewer women survive to a reproductive age. Globally, the figure drops to 0.94. So the replacement fertility level needed worldwide is more than 2.1.”, 1.1. An estimate for the sex ratio globally is 2.08. To estimate a global replacement fertility rate we divide 2.08 by 0.94, which comes out at 2.21 children per woman.”
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