NEW: Since 1996, the tipping-point House seat has had a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+2.7 or redder. In recent years, it’s been closer to R+5. In 2022, the tipping-point seat could be anywhere from R+1.0 to R+1.9. Read more from FiveThirtyEight:
So while some of the specific numbers will change, we now have a good sense of what thefrom this redistricting cycle will be. No matter which way you slice it, Democrats have gained blue seats from the mapmaking process, making the House playing field between the two parties more balanced than it has been in decades. But that doesn’t mean the 2022 congressional map should be considered “fair.
That’s a net increase of 11 Democratic-leaning seats from the old maps. Meanwhile, the number of Republican-leaning seats has decreased by six, as has the number of highly competitive seats. Of course, that’s just the partisan lean of the districts. To get a sense for how these changes will affect the race for control of the chamber, you need to factor in which party currently controls each seat . Still, Democrats are likely to gain seats from redistricting in 2022 even after you consider that they already hold a lot of those newly blue-leaning seats.
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