The real test during the first round of voting in France's regional elections is the strength of what the French call “le front républicain”
ON JUNE 17TH, three days before the first round of voting in France’s regional elections, Marine Le Pen is due to drop in on the Mediterranean port of Toulon. For the leader of the hard-right National Rally , the trip serves as a double symbol. Toulon was the first big town hall that the party captured, back in 1995. And it lies at the heart of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur , the region whose presidency the RN has the best chance of winning at a second-round vote on June 27th.
Polls give Ms Le Pen’s party the lead in first-round voting in six regions. In PACA, three polls put her candidate, Thierry Mariani, a 62-year-old former minister who defected from the centre-right Republicans, well ahead with 41-43% of the vote. Any contender with 10% of the vote can go through to a second round.
. This refers to two forms of bipartisanship: the willingness of voters to gang up against the RN in the second round in order to keep it from power, and the readiness of rival qualifying candidates to stand down in order to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote. This time, back-room negotiations between the first and second round will reveal whether competing candidates are again willing to put aside their differences in order to keep the RN out. One poll finds, for example, that Mr Bertrand, who is also a contender for the national presidency next year, would need Mr Macron’s candidate to bow out if he is to beat Ms Le Pen’s man, Sébastien Chenu, in the northern race, for the Hauts-de-France region.
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