An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Forecast models briefly trended more west Thu. but have trended back east recently which is why one should not become too obsessed with individual model runs. Some of the real time aircraft dropsonde data was used Thu. in the 18Z GFS model run *but not* in the 00Z model run which is probably why the GFS had a “hiccup” in the 18Z run showing a track much more west. I bemoan when real time data is not consistently used within the models as it usually causes inconsistency within the models.
On the current official forecast track, Fiona will move near or a little east of some of the highest mountain ranges of Haiti & the Dominican Republic. It’s this part of the forecast - Puerto Rico & Hispaniola - that right now is the most critical - the “fork in the road” when it comes to strength once over the SW Atlantic given the track over land could seriously disrupt Fiona’s organization.
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