A thorough analysis of market, technological, and supply chain outcomes for sodium-ion batteries finds that significant advances are needed before commercialization.
Legions of battery engineers and their supporters have sought for years to build batteries cheaper than the dominant lithium-ion technology, hoping to capture some of lithium-ion's $50 billion-a-year and growing market. The latest darling contender among researchers, startups, and venture capitalists -- sodium-ion batteries -- has received much attention after COVID-induced mineral supply chain challenges sent lithium prices on a wild ride.
Yao's PhD co-advisors are the new study's senior authors and the co-directors of STEER: Sally Benson, the Precourt Family Professor in the Department of Energy Science & Engineering in the Doerr School of Sustainability; and William Chueh, an associate professor of materials science in the School of Engineering, of photon science at SLAC, and of energy science and engineering in the Doerr School.
"As technologists and investors, we cannot assume that economies-of-scale will always send prices plummeting once a device reaches commercial production. Yes, there will be a learning curve, but here we quantify this curve and show that it isn't enough on its own," said Chueh, who is also the director of the Precourt Institute for Energy."Engineering advances will likely do much more to cut sodium-ion battery costs than simply scaling production.
"One key thing we learned from industry practitioners is that while battery cell prices are important, technologies only succeed at the systems level, say an electric vehicle or a grid-scale battery energy storage system. That's why we're now expanding our scope to provide more holistic perspectives, including understanding the cost of safety and other systems considerations," said Yao.
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