Market Analysis by covering: S&P 500. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
could return 5% – 7% in 2026, and while it would feel like a significant change, the S&P 500 would have just an average year in terms of historical annual returns.Gina Martin Adams shows above how the 36-month rolling return has reached 2 standard deviations, which, according to the bar chart above, shows that “expected, forward returns” for the S&P 500 tend to shrink rapidly.
I remember in March 2000, there was a technical analyst by the name of John Roche who noted that the semiconductor index was 3 standard deviations above it’s 200-day moving average, a level that had never been seen before. The name of the firm John worked for couldn’t be recalled, but that was the top of the 1982 – 2000 secular bull market. Whether he was trying to or not, John called the market top almost precisely. What was quite painful for those of us who lived through it was the ensuing 10 years. I do remember getting an AOL instant message from Norm Conley, CEO & CIO of JAG Capital Management, located in St. Louis, stating that as of January, 2009, the rolling 120-month return for the S&P 500 had just reached a level not seen since the Great Depression. Readers can see the two extremes: a record return decade for the 1990s, and then a record bear market immediately following from 2000 to 2009. Click on the box above, and note the PE expansion/contraction periods. This pattern is somewhat consistent with “return streaks” which this blog addressed in anFinally, the Kobeissi Letter picks up on the 3 years of S&P 500 returns, similar to this blog’s post linked above, but also incorporates Gina Martin Adams’ analysis in terms of reaching extremes. Kobeissi posts tend to be more bearish, which is why I read him, but the letters are solid analysis.We could see a low single-digit return for the S&P 500 , in the next few years, although the AI bulls remain steadfast with their foot on the gas. We are in the 16th – 17th year of a secular bull market, which means the bull is growing very long in the tooth. This blog will do more rebalancing into non-correlated assets again in January ’26; there is risk too that the bull market continues for a few more years. These blog posts are written more so that I can flesh out the thought process and go through the analysis, and put it to paper, rather than just thinking about it.None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. None of the above information may be updated, and if updated, may not be done in a timely fashion.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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