Stocks Analysis by James Picerno covering: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, SPDR® S&P 500, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares, iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.
Years ago there was a TV commercial about a kids’ toy called Weebles, which “wobbled but they don’t fall down.” The line comes to mind in reviewing recent market activity. Since returning to the White House last month, President Trump has outlined a wave of policy changes, plans and comments that have roiled markets and shaken expectations about the economic outlook.
The IEF:SHY ratio, after a brief reprieve, remains negative. Perhaps the peak in yields is behind us, but for now, this ratio is still suggesting a cautious view on going further out on the maturity curve.). Most of the time this ratio trends higher, reflecting the superior performance of stocks through time. At times, however, this ratio takes a hit, which usually signals trouble for a risk-on worldview. At the moment, this indicator remains solidly in risk-on terrain.
The last bout of substantial volatility struck last August. So far in 2025, there’s been a relatively mild run of turbulence, but risk-on sentiment wobbled but has yet to fall down.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors.
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