Since late October, the HUF has been on a rollercoaster ride in anticipation of the momentous days of early November (US election, FOMC).
Since late October, the HUF has been on a rollercoaster ride in anticipation of the momentous days of early November . After the US election, EUR/HUF rose to over 410. Last week, market concerns that the successor to central bank chief Gyorgy Matolcsy, whose term of office expires in March 2025, could seek a looser monetary policy in view of the weak fundamentals, also weighed on the forint. The current finance minister, Mihaly Varga, is being discussed as a possible new central bank chief.
The currency weakness and the volatility of the forint should be a cause for concern for the central bank.” “The forint tends to be more volatile and prone to runaway in times of heightened risk aversion, which could require emergency measures by the central bank to prevent further currency weakness. In such scenarios, the exchange rate can become a dominant inflation driver, which is why the central bank would probably like to stop these developments early on.
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