The Hungarian forint’s depreciation is accelerating relative to eastern European peers, especially after a negative Q3 GDP reading.
Against the euro, the forint has surpassed the 405 level and seems headed towards the 410 mark. Commerzbank’s EUR/HUF forecast is 415.0 for end-2025. But, this current development does not seem to be just an orderly progression towards such a target, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. MNB’s hawkish stance is justified “The forint is prone to greater volatility and high-beta swings during risk-off episodes, and can get somewhat out of hand, needing emergency responses by MNB.
” “What we mean by intervention is that MNB might have to come out and further tweak its monetary policy guidance verbally – possibly warning about a reversal into rate hikes in case the situation worsens.” “If things were to progress in this direction, government backing in the media would be crucial. Any contradictory remarks by government officials could have a rapidly destabilising effect.
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