Republicans are facing a “worst-case scenario” in their redistricting fight with Democrats spurred on by President Donald Trump.
to redraw their own. The goal in Texas was to net up to five additional Republican seats that would allow the GOP to secure the House for Trump’s final two years in office. President Donald Trump talks with Texas Gov.
Greg Abbott at Shelby Park during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. The El Paso court panel said Tuesday in a 2-1 decision that “substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map,” and ordered the state to revert to the maps it had drawn in 2021. California’s Proposition 50 was initially justified as a parallel action to that of Texas. There was even language in the measure stating that California would only move forward with its redistricting plans if Texas proceeded with its own plans. However, that language was removed from the measure before it reached Gov. desk for him to sign it into law. That means there was nothing written on the ballot tying its validity to Texas’s decision when Californians went to cast their votes on Proposition 50 on Nov. 4. With Texas no longer proceeding with its map, Proposition 50 stays in effect, delivering an unexpected blow to Republicans. “This is something of a worst-case scenario for Republicans, because there was no clause when voters passed Prop 50 that it would it would be tabled if Texas was invalidated,” Dave Wasserman, the senior editor and elections analyst for the “So the net result is that Democrats could come out ahead in this redistricting fight if the decision in Texas is upheld. In fact, Democrats could net, effectively, the three seats they need for the majority from redistricting.”] played with fire, got burned — and democracy won. This ruling is a win for Texas, and for every American who fights for free and fair elections.” Republicans to produce and pass a new map that favors the GOP, despite state Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray saying last week therein the Hoosier State this week, threatening to back primary challenges to senators who have resisted pressure to change their maps. Republicans already hold a 7-2 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation, but Trump wants to secure more seats. He has singled out Bray and state Sen. Greg Goode . “Because of these two politically correct type ‘gentlemen,’ and a few others, they could be depriving Republicans of a Majority in the House, a VERY BIG DEAL!” Trumpthat brought sheriff’s deputies to his home on the pretense of a “domestic violence emergency.” Goode has not publicly stated his position on redistricting, but has said he will wait until he sees a map. Bray announced Friday that the state Senate would be out until January. said that the Indiana Senate needs to have a public discussion surrounding redistricting and look at maps that are “going to hopefully come from” the Indiana House. Braun also criticized Bray and said he would consider a change in leadership in the state Senate and the caucus.“The idea that we could have gone from Republicans creating an impenetrable map for themselves to, like, the Democrats now potentially gaining seats if this Texas court thing stays is an unbelievable turn of events in a short period of time,” Tim Miller, host ofJustin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School, said that most “law around redistricting is up to the state, not the federal government, not federal law, and we just changed state law.” He added that he didn’t think “there are many grounds for a legal challenge against Prop. 50 to succeed.”because Proposition 50 was “a rush-job rejiggering California’s congressional district lines,” and argued that “race cannot be used as a proxy to advance political interests, but that is precisely what the California General Assembly did with Proposition 50.” The lawsuit claimed that “race was a predominant factor in drawing at least District 13 in the Proposition 50 map.” With the passage of Proposition 50, the number of Republicans representing Californians could be cut in half. The state currently has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans in the House. Proposition 50 shifted five GOP-represented House districts into the competitive or easily winnable category for Democrats. The new map eliminated Calvert’s Inland Empire district and created a new seat in Los Angeles County that skewed heavily toward Democrats. Wasserman, who does not believe the federal government has much of a case against Proposition 50, called the “plot twists” leading up to the midterm election among the most extreme he has ever seen.
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