Arkansas' Razorbacks are back in the NCAA Tournament conversation after back-to-back Quad 1 road wins, but the SEC bubble is a crowded field. This article examines Arkansas' recent success and their path to March Madness, while also highlighting nine other teams battling for a spot in the Big Dance.
Just when it looked like John Calipari was heading toward a complete letdown in his first season at the helm in Arkansas, the Razorbacks have a pulse after back-to-back Quad 1 road wins over Kentucky and Texas. The win over the Wildcats — an all-timer for Calipari in his return to Rupp Arena — saw Adou Thiero go off for 21 points, while the backcourt duo of D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis combined for 35 points and 14 assists, with just two turnovers.
To knock down 13 total 3s on the night and package together their best performance of the season in Lexington was really impressive, and it appears to have given this team a much-needed jolt of confidence. The biggest key for the Hogs as of late might be the emergence of Davis. The FAU transfer, whose scoring was cut in half from last year up until recently, has tallied at least 18 points in three consecutive games and totaled 24 points on 7-of-15 shooting from the floor and 4-of-8 shooting from 3-point range in Wednesday’s 78-70 win over Texas. With four-star freshman Boogie Fland out for the year with a thumb injury — as tough as that is — it does feel like roles are more defined for Arkansas and the duo of Davis and Wagner aren’t battling for touches or time with anyone else. And Thiero has had a career season with seven 20-plus point games and eight straight in double figures. Arkansas' résumé has risen to 44th in the NET, 43rd in KenPom and 52nd in KPI, a computer-generated metric that the committee incorporates that ranks college basketball teams by assigning a value to each game they play. With a trio of wins over top-30 NET teams, the Razorbacks do have positives, but they need more. This is the best part about the SEC if you’re on the bubble: there are a slew of games that shouldn’t hurt you too badly if you lose and a bunch of opportunities to continue to move the needle. The next five games for Arkansas: Saturday vs. No. 3 Alabama, Wednesday vs. LSU, Feb. 15 @ No. 10 Texas A&M, Feb. 19 @ No. 1 Auburn and Feb. 22 vs. No. 15 Missouri. LSU is a must-win game, and coupling that with two wins could get Arkansas on the right side of the bubble — if not just outside it. But with nine games left before the SEC Tournament and a pretty manageable home stretch after that gauntlet of five games, the Hogs have a chance to hear their name called in a season where it felt hard to believe we’d ever hear those words at one point. They entered the week as Mike Decourcy’s fifth team out of his tournament field. Let’s get to nine other teams on the bubble and in the fight on the road to March Madness: Hubert Davis' Tar Heels are tracking toward missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years, and if that happens, the hot seat is going to warm up quickly. Why? Because this is North Carolina. The standards are not to find a way to the tournament; it’s about competing for national championships. But UNC missed in the transfer portal and didn’t get a proper replacement for Armando Bacot. The Tar Heels are 1-9 in Quadrant 1 competition. That’s not NCAA Tournament-worthy at the moment, and the ACC isn’t stacked with opportunities either. Package that with a Quad 3 loss to Stanford at home and that quality result gets negated. North Carolina must beat Pitt at home on Saturday. If it can do that and knock off Clemson on Monday in a tough road game, things could be looking up again. The Hoosiers have one more Quad 1 win than North Carolina and no blemishes outside the top quadrant, but their NET is 63, one spot behind a Penn State team that isn’t a tournament-caliber squad. Their season is currently floundering after having lost four in a row and having too many nights where they’ve just gotten blown out. If Indiana's season is ever going to regain some momentum, Saturday’s home game against Michigan is a must-win. Like many teams floating around the bubble this time of year, the Bulldogs have no blemishes on their résumé but could use two to three more high-quality wins to lock up a ticket to the Big Dance. Third-year head coach Mike White has a team that I believe will end up in the tournament for the program’s first appearance in 10 years. Here’s the résumé at the moment: 2-7 against Quad 1, 3-0 against Quad 2, 3-0 against Quad 3 and 8-0 against Quad 4. The Bulldogs took care of business in a gotta-have-it game on Wednesday with an 81-62 win over LSU behind Blue Cain’s near triple-double of 10 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Their next four games come against tournament teams: vs. Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, vs. Missouri and at Auburn. If they can only get one win, they’re going to be looking at the rest of the bubble. Still, any team on the bubble in the SEC controls its path. The Big East’s shot at a fifth bid in the NCAA Tournament that isn’t a bid-stealer comes with the Musketeers, who were once ranked in the top 20 of the AP poll but didn’t stack together move-the-needle results in non-conference play.
NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams Arkansas Razorbacks SEC Basketball March Madness
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