Arkansas Razorbacks, despite a recent loss to Tennessee, are favored to defeat Mississippi at home. The author believes Arkansas's strong defense will be the key to victory, as they excel at stifling mid-range shots and perimeter cuts, which are key components of Mississippi's offensive strategy.
After a tough loss at Tennessee, the Arkansas Razorbacks return home to take on Mississippi. Given the Hogs' ability to defend well, Chris Hatfield believes the value is on the home side tonight. Lately, it’s been rough sledding for the Hogs. They’ll arrive at this one off a smashing from Tennessee and essentially only having one “big” win to their names in the form of Michigan. Despite the Rebels winning five of their last six, my Arkansas vs.
Mississippi predictions will back the hosts for a few reasons. It’s not because I think head coach John Calipari is particularly brilliant. I’ve lamented about my problems with his style before, but you cannot ignore the talent that’s assembled. Outside that, it’s also because I fully recognize the defensive metrics that the Razorbacks have put up and understand they should be getting more out of that production. I’m laying the juice with Arkansas to win today. I see more value in the money line than anything, as my projections price it at -220. Given my opening, it should be no surprise that the story of this game for me is the Arkansas defense. I see them controlling this game and being why the Hogs win it. Let’s look at the three places Leading the pack is offensive plays that end with a mid-range shot. The Rebels have one of the highest frequencies nationally of mid-range shots, ranking in the 94th percentile in college basketball from a volume perspective. Arkansas has been great defensively here, holding opponents to .64 points per possession. Secondarily, out of a set offense, the foundation of Mississippi’s offense is perimeter cutting with another high volume rate compared to the national average. But the problem for them? You probably guessed it. Arkansas is also borderline elite defensively here, holding opponents to .78 points per possession on these sets. To put it plainly, this is a bad matchup for Mississippi at a bad time and a bad locatio
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS MISSISSIPPI REBELS COLLEGE BASKETBALL DEFENSE PREDICTIONS
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