Putin's retaliation against sanctions has backfired and could cost Russia $150 billion this year RBC says
But so far, Russia has been paying the price for those retaliatory measures, not Europe. Ash noted that Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, is currently trading at a 30%-40% discount to Brent, a difference that could mean a total $150 billion loss for Russia this year. Along with increased military and social spending, that could hike Russia's budget deficit from 2.3% of its GDP to up to 7% of its GDP this year, Ash said.
"All of which goes to underline the error of Vladimir Putin's calculations when he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine," Ash said."Putin seemed to have all the cards, and much suggested Europe would eventually buckle." He pointed to five reasons why Russia's attempt to hit back at trade restrictions have largely failed – and have hurt Russia more than they've hurt the west.Gas demand in Germany was slashed by 25%, which has alleviated the supply-shortage and pain of record-high energy prices. It's also lowered demand for Russian energy – a major headwind for the Kremlin.Warmer temperatures are helping keep a lid on demand and help blunt supply issues.
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